Why is SpaceXs 60-page PowerPoint worth $1.77 trillion?

SpaceX raised money again. This time it is US$1.77 trillion-a figure that already exceeds the combined market value of Boeing and Airbus and approaches the valuation of the entire China aerospace industry. In June 2026, Musk launched a new round of capital harvesting with a 60-page roadshow PPT. As soon as the news came out, the technology and investment circles exploded. Some say it is a bubble, some say it is an underestimate. I flipped through the public information of this PPT and Musk's style of roadshows over the years, and wanted to talk about whether this valuation was tenable and the financing tricks hidden in these 60 pages.

1. How was the valuation of 1.77 trillion yuan calculated

Let's talk about numbers first. SpaceX's financing round is valued at US$1.77 trillion, or approximately RMB 12.8 trillion. This figure was not set by Musk at random, nor was it the sentiment pricing given by the secondary market-SpaceX is a private company and its valuation is based on a share price negotiated by investors and the company.

How is it calculated specifically? Pre-financing valuation divided by total equity. Take SpaceX's financing in 2025 as an example. At that time, the valuation was US$350 billion and the financing was US$2 billion. This round of financing in 2026 is said to be larger, with a valuation jumping to 1.77 trillion yuan, which means that either revenue and profits have increased significantly, or investors are targeting SpaceX's discounted cash flow over the next 5-10 years.

I checked public information and found that SpaceX's main sources of revenue are three: NASA contracts (International Space Station supply, Artemis moon landing program), commercial satellite launches, and Starlink subscription revenue. According to reports quoted by qubit, SpaceX's 2025 revenue is expected to be between US$9 billion and US$11 billion, and its net profit is approximately US$2 billion to US$3 billion. Based on this figure, the valuation of 1.77 trillion yuan corresponds to a P/E ratio of about 60 times. For a high-growth, monopolistic aerospace company, this multiple is not outrageous in the private equity market-SpaceX's financing valuation in 2023 is US$137 billion, nearly 13 times in three years, with an annualized growth of more than 130%.

Of course, valuation has always been a matter of "you want me to do it." Musk dared to shout 1.77 trillion yuan because he knew investors would pay. SpaceX is now the only company in the world that can provide reliable commercial manned space services and the only company that can make rocket recycling a regular basis. This scarcity is the source of pricing power.

2. SpaceX's core assets: more than just rockets

Many people still have the impression of SpaceX as a "launch company that can recycle rockets." This is an underestimate of it. Opening the catalog of this roadshow PPT, SpaceX positions itself as an "integrated space service provider" and its business landscape is far more complex than the outside world imagined.

The Falcon series rockets are the most mature cash cows. The Falcon 9 is currently the most frequently launched launch vehicle in the world, with more than 130 launches in 2025, accounting for more than 60% of the global commercial launch market. Its advantage is not just that it is cheap, but that it is reliable-it has been successfully recycled more than 300 consecutive times and reused more than 200 consecutive times, making SpaceX the most reliable choice in the eyes of insurance companies and satellite operators.

Starlink is the second growth curve. As of June 2026, the number of satellites in orbit in the Star Chain has exceeded 7000, and the number of users has exceeded 5 million, covering more than 90 countries and regions around the world. Musk revealed on many occasions that Star Chain's gross profit margin has exceeded 50%, and its monthly revenue exceeds US$300 million. More importantly, Star Chain is not just an Internet access service. It is becoming part of the space infrastructure-military communications, aircraft networking, maritime operations, and autonomous driving high-precision positioning. These scenarios are all migrating to Star Chain.

Starship is the king of the future. This fully reusable super-heavy launch vehicle has a capacity of 150 tons in low-earth orbit, more than three times that of the Falcon 9. In 2025, multiple orbital level tests will be completed and successful recovery will be achieved, and commercial launch missions will be carried out in 2026. Once the starship enters normal operation, launch costs will be reduced by another order of magnitude, and SpaceX's market pricing capabilities will be further enhanced.

So Musk's logic is: I don't just sell rocket launch services, I sell space-age "water, electricity and gas." As long as you go into space, you have to use my infrastructure.

3. The narrative logic of the 60-page PPT

To be honest, I haven't read the complete content of this PPT, but Musk is famous for his roadshow style over the past few years. I referred to the reports of SpaceX's previous financing by The Verge, Wired and other media, as well as the memoirs of some early investors, and I could roughly piece out the structure of this PPT.

In the first 10 pages, Musk will not talk directly about financial data. He will first tell a story about "Why humans have become a multi-planetary species." This is the narrative framework Musk is best at-using grand narratives to establish emotional connections, making investors feel that they are not just investing in a company, but participating in a cause related to the destiny of mankind. This narrative has also been seen at Jobs 'iPhone launch, but it works particularly well in a high-risk industry like aerospace.

The next 20 pages are technical verification. SpaceX will display recovered video of the Falcon 9, a global coverage map of Starlink, and test images of Starship. These images are more convincing than any PPT chart-investors are not seeing paper data, but the company is really turning science fiction into reality.

Then there is market analysis and financial forecasts. Star Chain's target market size, TAM (Total Addressable Market), will be placed in a very large framework: the global Internet access market, satellite communications market, space tourism market, and even the future asteroid mining market. Musk's ambition is not just a casual exaggeration. He will ask third-party institutions to endorse it to make the numbers seem both radical and credible.

The last 10 pages are about financing terms and exit paths. SpaceX's shares have some liquidity in the secondary market (through primary market platforms such as Forge Global), but the real exit will have to wait until an IPO or a large-scale merger. Musk will tell you: Hold on patiently and the rewards will be considerable.

The core logic of this narrative structure is: first build dreams, then prove abilities, and finally calculate rewards. Musk understands the psychology of venture capitalists-they are not investing in current cash flow, but in future possibilities.

4. How does SpaceX push launch costs to ankle prices

Why do investors flock to SpaceX? Because it reshapes the cost structure of space launches.

There are two reasons why the cost of traditional space launches is high: rockets are disposable and supply chains are closed. NASA's SLS rocket (Space Launch System) costs more than $4 billion per launch, and Boeing and Lockheed Martin's joint venture, the Joint Launch Alliance (ULA), costs more than $400 million per Delta IV Heavy. This is not an inflated price, but a necessity of the technical route-their rocket design is not for recycling.

SpaceX has taken a completely different path. The design life of the Falcon 9 booster is 10 recoveries and 100 reuses. In actual operations, a single booster has flown more than 15 times. After each recycling, only fuel is needed and simple testing is performed to launch it again, which directly reduces the marginal cost to one-tenth of the original.

Specific figures: The Falcon 9 LEO orbital capacity is approximately 22.8 tons, and the single launch price is approximately US$67 million, equivalent to approximately US$2940 per kilogram of payload. For comparison, ULA's Delta IV Heavy has a capacity of 28.4 tons and is priced at more than US$400 million, or more than US$14000 per kilogram-nearly five times that of SpaceX.

If Starship was fully reusable, the numbers would be even more exaggerated. SpaceX's goal is to reduce the cost per kilogram of payload to less than $100. What does this mean? This means that the cost of launching a commercial satellite now may only be equivalent to buying a luxury SUV in the future.

The cost revolution not only brings price competitiveness, but opens up new markets. When launch costs are low enough, batch deployment of low-orbit satellites becomes economically feasible; concepts such as space manufacturing, space tourism, and space energy can be commercialized. SpaceX is using cost advantages to create incremental markets rather than rolling in existing markets.

5. Star Chain: The Vision of the Space Internet

In the roadshow PPT, Star Link must occupy a considerable amount of space. This business is the largest part of SpaceX's valuation imagination.

Star Link's business model is simple: charge users for terminal equipment fees and monthly fees. Users need to purchase a set of terminal equipment (including antenna and router) at prices ranging from $500 to $1000, with monthly fees ranging from $90 to $120. According to public information, Star Link's user subscription revenue in 2025 has exceeded US$3.5 billion, and its gross profit margin exceeds 50%.

But this is only the tip of the iceberg. The true value of the Star Chain lies in the "space backbone network" it builds.

The traditional Internet relies on terrestrial optical fibers and submarine optical cables, and is greatly limited by terrain and political boundaries. Star Chain provides broadband access with seamless global coverage, which is of great value for the following scenarios:

Remote areas: Users in Alaska, inland Australia, and African grasslands, where traditional broadband coverage is not available or the price is extremely high, Star Link is the only choice.

Mobile scenarios: Aircraft, cruise ships, long-haul trucks, StarLink has signed cooperation agreements with a number of airlines to provide in-flight WiFi for flights.

Government and military: The Pentagon is one of Starlink's big customers. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Star Chain played an important role in Ukraine's communications guarantee, which made the militaries of various countries realize the strategic value of space communications.

Emergency and disaster: When earthquakes or hurricanes cause damage to ground infrastructure, satellite link can quickly restore communication.

Musk mentioned on many occasions that the ultimate goal of Starlink is to "allow everyone on earth to access the Internet." Currently, about 2.8 billion people are still "offline" around the world. How big is this market? Conservative estimates exceed US$50 billion per year. When Starlink completes global coverage and the number of users exceeds 10 million, its annual revenue may reach tens of billions of dollars-this does not include B2B revenue from providing data relay services to other satellites.

Of course, Star Chain also faces challenges. SpaceX has launched more than 7000 satellites, but this is only a quarter of the first phase of the plan. More importantly, the scarcity of low-orbit resources is triggering international competition-Amazon's Kuiper, China Star Network, and Europe's Iris² are all seizing the frequency band and space in low-Earth orbit. Whether the Star Chain can maintain its lead in the future depends largely on SpaceX's launch capabilities and regulatory relationships.

6. Starship: The Real Game Changer

If Starlink is SpaceX's present, then Starship is its future.

Starship is currently the largest launch vehicle in human history. With a capacity of 150 tons, low-earth orbit is the strongest rocket after Saturn V. More importantly, it is designed to be fully reusable-not just the booster, but also the upper-stage spacecraft. This means that launch costs will fall precipitously again.

SpaceX's official goal is: Starship's single launch cost less than $10 million, with a target of $1 million. For comparison, the current launch cost of Falcon 9 is about US$67 million, and NASA's SLS exceeds US$4 billion. If Starship achieves its goals, costs will be reduced by 40 to 400 times.

This number may sound exaggerated, but it is supported by physical foundations. Starship uses liquid methane as a fuel, which is not only cheap but can be produced on-site on Mars. SpaceX's vision was never just about Earth orbit-they designed Starship with deep space exploration and Mars colonization in mind. When rockets can be refueled on other planets, the economics of long-distance space travel will fundamentally change.

In 2025, Starship completed multiple orbital tests. The "super heavy" booster was successfully recovered and the spacecraft body was successfully splashed down, marking the basic completion of the verification of key technologies. Commercial launch missions will begin in 2026, and the first customers include multiple satellite operators and the U.S. military.

The significance of Starship's valuation of SpaceX is that it raises SpaceX's ceiling from a "commercial launch company" to a "space infrastructure operator." When a rocket can launch a payload of 150 tons at a time, fly dozens of times a year, and each time costs less than $10 million, SpaceX's business model will undergo a qualitative change-it no longer charges by "time", but by "tonnage" and "frequency" charges, and the market size will expand by several orders of magnitude.

7. Industry comparison: How far are SpaceX's competitors

SpaceX is not without competition. On the contrary, its valuation is so high in part because its competitors are too weak.

I made a horizontal comparison of the world's major space launch service providers:

Looking at this table, the gap is clear at a glance. SpaceX launches more than twice the frequency of all other manufacturers combined, but its price is only one-third to one-tenth of that of its competitors. Blue Origin's valuation is about one-thirtieth of SpaceX's, but the number of launches is only a fraction of SpaceX's. Although the New Glenn rocket has also achieved partial recycling, it has not yet formed large-scale operation.

ULA is in the most awkward situation. It is backed by two major military giants, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and holds a large number of orders from the U.S. government, but its cost structure is completely unable to compete with SpaceX. In 2024, ULA announced a 20% layoff and began seeking to be acquired. This veteran aerospace company with a history of more than 60 years is becoming the biggest victim of SpaceX's rise.

China Aerospace is not weak at the national team level, and the reliability and frequency of the Long March series are improving, but the core problem is the same: without recyclable technology, costs cannot be reduced. A number of private companies have emerged in the commercial aerospace field, such as Blue Arrow Aerospace and Interstellar Glory, but there is still a generational gap in scale and technological maturity compared with SpaceX.

So Musk's confidence is that this is not competition on the same dimension. SpaceX has redefined the track, and other players will either chase it or find another path.

8. Risks and Challenges: SpaceX is not a God

After praising SpaceX, we have to talk about the risks. Of course, roadshow PPT won't write about these, but as an observer, I feel necessary to point out a few issues.

technical risks still exist. Although Starship has completed many tests, it is still far from being fully reusable and normalized operation. SpaceX has also encountered cases of failed rocket recovery. In 2024, there was a failure to recover a booster and an accident in which the thermal insulation tile fell off when the spacecraft re-entered. Aerospace's fault tolerance rate is extremely low, and a major accident may set the entire project back several years.

regulatory pressure is increasing. SpaceX's satellite link program requires a large amount of low-orbit resources, which has attracted the attention of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and national regulators. SpaceX has been complained many times by other countries and companies for "too many Star Chain Constellations." Future spectrum allocation and orbit coordination will become increasingly complex.

competitors are catching up. Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket has completed its first flight, Amazon's Kuiper Constellation program will begin deployment in 2026, and China's Star Network program is also accelerating. As more competitors enter the market, SpaceX's pricing power and market share will come under pressure.

Fourth, Musk's personal risks. Needless to say, Musk himself is SpaceX's biggest variable. He is also in charge of Tesla, SpaceX, X(Twitter), xAI and other companies, and his energy is surprisingly scattered. Moreover, his political stance and social media speeches have caused controversy from time to time, which may have an impact on SpaceX's acquisition of government contracts.

Fifth, the possibility of a valuation bubble. $1.77 trillion is a huge number, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of about 60 times. If SpaceX's revenue growth falls short of expectations, or the commercialization of Star Chain slows down, this valuation may face a correction. Valuation fluctuations in the private market are not as transparent as those in the secondary market, but investors 'floating losses on the books are real.

Therefore, SpaceX is very good, but it does not mean that it is not risky. While investors pay for their dreams, they also need to be soberly aware that aerospace is a high-risk industry, and the failure of any technical route may bring disastrous consequences.

9. Who should pay attention to this matter

SpaceX's financing news is not just a talk in the technology community, its spillover effects will affect multiple groups.

For technology entrepreneurs, SpaceX demonstrates the possibility of a "dimensional-reduction strike." Musk's strategy is not to infuse a mature market, but to use technological revolution to create new markets and reuse scale effects to build barriers. When a competitor like SpaceX appears on your track, either differentiate or quit.

For investors, SpaceX's valuation provides a frame of reference. If you focus on commercial space tracks, you need to ask yourself: Why can projects other than SpaceX get higher valuations? Is SpaceX's valuation bubble? If there is, who will be squeezed out first?

For aerospace practitioners, SpaceX's success means that industry rules have been rewritten. The cost structure and business model of traditional aerospace companies are failing, and the focus of future competition is cost control and operational efficiency. It will become increasingly difficult for people who remain in the old system to survive.

For policymakers, SpaceX's rise raises a strategic question: Is it in the national interest to have space infrastructure dominated by a private company? The U.S. military is already using SpaceX services, but is this reliance controllable? How can other countries deal with SpaceX's monopoly?

For the general public, SpaceX's story concerns a larger question: Is space exploration a common cause of mankind, or is it the private game of a few super-rich people? Musk's vision of immigrating to Mars sounds grand, but it is too far away from ordinary people, and the decline in commercial aerospace costs brought by SpaceX is a real dividend that can be enjoyed.

X. Summary and action recommendations

SpaceX's 60-page PPT is worth US$1.77 trillion, not because it is worth the money now, but because investors believe it is worth the money in the future.

This PPT does not sell rockets, but admission tickets to "space-age infrastructure." SpaceX's core competitiveness does not lie in the technology itself-Falcon 9 's recycling technology, Boeing and Lockheed Martin can also do it-but in the fact that it uses technology to establish a commercial closed loop: low cost → high-frequency → data accumulation → further reduction costs. Once this flywheel turns, it will be difficult for competitors to catch up.

But investors also need to remember that high growth is bound to be accompanied by high volatility. SpaceX's valuation is already half that of the global aerospace industry, and this premium contains too many optimistic expectations for the future. Once the commercialization of Starship is blocked, Star Chain user growth slows down, or a major technical accident occurs, the valuation correction may exceed expectations.

For investors who are concerned about this track, my advice is: Don't just look at SpaceX, look at the entire commercial aerospace ecosystem. SpaceX's valuation is already high, but there are still many undervalued opportunities for its suppliers, its competitors, and the markets it serves. The spread of rocket recycling technology, the scale of satellite Internet, and breakthroughs in space manufacturing will create new investment targets.

For ordinary readers, SpaceX's story tells us a simple truth: the cost revolution is the underlying driving force of all business change. When the cost of a technology drops to one-tenth of its original value, the market size may expand a hundred times. What SpaceX is doing is essentially making "going into space" as cheap and common as "flying." This future is worth looking forward to.

Musk gained $1.77 trillion in trust with 60 pages of PowerPoint. Whether this deal is cost-effective, time will tell. But at least for now, the entire industry is waiting to see whether SpaceX can turn the blown cows into reality one by one.